What impact should business travelers expect in the coming year given the number of airlines in bankruptcy, union issues, the high cost of fuel, and increased security, especially with carry-on bags? Do you see continued turbulence or some settling down in the industry in the near future? "A little over five years ago, any exercise in forecasting what air travel would be like in the upcoming year probably would not have contained the words 'airport security.' Prior to the Sept. 11 attacks, most of us, including pilots, were comfortable almost to the point of complacency about the security of air travel. Although most pilots and frequent travelers did question the quality of the security access point screeners and their ability to find prohibited items, our biggest worry then was the outbreak of air rage incidents, which, while occasionally serious, pale in comparison to what happened on Sept. 11.

"I won't recite the next five years of aviation security history here, but for air travelers, any trip to any airport became a nightmarish scene tinged with paranoia. Lines snaked through airport terminals while newly minted government security screeners probed every conceivable location for any object that might remotely be considered a weapon of mass destruction on an airplane.

"The airline industry, already feeling the effects of the dot-com economic bust, went into a nosedive. Passengers stayed away in droves for fear of being caught in another attack. The hassles of airport security made even the most hardened road warriors think twice and ask, 'Is this trip really necessary?'

"Without a doubt, however, we are far safer today than we were five years ago. We have improved the ground security around our airports, intensified the screening of passengers and luggage, and have provided armed law enforcement officers and pilots to protect our airliners during flight. The bottom line is that security is far better today, but remains cumbersome, intrusive, and frequently inefficient.

"Let us now fast forward and look ahead to 2007. How will aviation security concerns affect commercial air travel?

"The bad news is that unless we see some drastic changes, security procedures will continue to cause bad or even worse air travel bottlenecks. The Transportation Security Administration's [TSA] recent pendulum swing on the necessity of keeping passengers from bringing liquids onto airplanes illustrates the basic flaw in how we have gone about keeping our airplanes secure.

"Our government's efforts to prevent another Sept. 11-type of attack have focused with excruciating tunnel vision on things, instead of on the people who might use them to do us harm. Yesterday it was tweezers and nail files. Today it's lipstick and skin lotion. (The absurdity of which gives new meaning to the term 'cosmetic fix' for a problem.) What will it be tomorrow? Socks and underwear?

"If we ever hope to make aviation security both more effective and less burdensome on our passengers, the TSA and the Department of Homeland Security [DHS] must move away from their focus on objects and implement methods to identify individuals who present a demonstrably higher level of risk.

"For example, what if I told you that good security does not require having your travel bag tossed by an agent looking for that tube of toothpaste you forgot? What if, in addition to the usual x-ray and magnetometer scans, your 'up close' screening would consist of being interviewed for a few minutes in line by a polite, trained professional who can spot telltale signs of suspicious behavior? Which method would you opt for? Which would your clients and customers choose?

"And if I told you that the second option actually is more effective than the current screening methods, how long would it take for you to contact your Congress members and demand an immediate change?

"Another effective defense against the people, instead of the objects, that threaten us is computerized prescreening of passengers. Contrary to the fears of privacy advocates, the goal here is not to find more passengers who can be subjected to the 'airport perp walk.' The idea is to quickly identify and clear all the passengers whose profiles do not set off alarm bells. If anyone is left after that, then only those individuals would be subjected to closer, more intense scrutiny. (Business air travelers would benefit greatly, since their travel profiles typically would produce enough data to verify that they do not fit known high-risk categories.)

"The overall goal, of course, is finding the proper balance: enough security in place to do the job, but done in a way that minimizes the impact on our passengers. The methods that I have outlined, not to mention many other improvements that the Air Line Pilots Association is advocating, are doable and have already proven to be effective.

"So why aren't we using them? When we talk with high-level officials at the TSA and the DHS, we find that they agree with this assessment. The biggest obstacle is mustering the political will and support to translate these ideas into action. Although airline pilots and other elements of the industry will continue to press for these changes, my concern is that little will be accomplished in 2007 unless and until there is a clear political mandate to fix these problems. Business travelers can and must join the growing chorus of voices of American voters who make it clear to their elected leaders that intrusive, inefficient, ineffective forms of aviation security are a problem that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, 'up with which we will not put.'"
Capt. Robert Hesselbein
Chairman, National Security Committee,
Air Line Pilots Association ( ALPA), representing 61,000
airline pilots at 40 air carriers in the United States and
Canada. www.alpa.org

"It is important to remember that the airline industry is inherently volatile and subject to an array of internal and external forces such as weather, fluctuating fuel prices, the general health of the economy, plagues/pestilence (think SARS or Mad Cow disease), wars, terrorism, etc. One could of course hope that things would 'settle down,' but turbulence seems to be a constant theme throughout the industry's history.

"Regarding the revenue environment: economic growth is beginning to moderate as the Fed continues its efforts to guide the economy towards a 'soft landing.' 2006 to date has been a positive year for the airlines as the revenue environment was strong, fueled in large part by a strong economy and relatively tight capacity growth. Capacity growth for 2007 and oil prices are the wildcards that could swing industry performance one way or another.

"Regarding union issues: Maintaining consensual and positive management-labor relations is a goal for all of our members.

"As far as the high cost of fuel: The industry is estimated to spend an extra $4.7 million in fuel expenses due in large part to higher oil prices. And for some carriers, fuel expense is now the single largest line item cost - exceeding labor, which has traditionally been the larger of the two. The prospect of lower oil prices will certainly help the bottom line and improve profitability (whether it's currently positive or negative) on all routes."
John Heimlich
Vice President and Chief Economist
Air Transport Association (ATA) www.airlines.org