For the past five years, the uncertainty of our times has certainly been played out in the meetings industry - with the after-effects of Sept. 11, the SARS scare, and raging hurricanes, such as Katrina, disrupting the normal flow of business.

But less crisis-like forces than terrorism, health scares, and natural disasters are also impacting the way we do business. Meeting industry professionals must deal daily with technology challenges, change in the workforce, change in the demographics of our members and the products and services they desire, and growing globalization. The list goes on and on.

How can we deal with uncertainty and plan for the future in a strategic, systematic way? Many are looking at scenario planning, a dynamic strategic planning concept presented at the Executive Edge seminars (sponsored in part by the PCMA Education Foundation) at the PCMA Annual Meeting in Philadelphia, as a model. Meeting industry leaders went to class at the Wharton School of Business during the Executive Edge program in Philadelphia to learn about this dynamic tool to help them think strategically and look beyond the day-to-day logistical details of their jobs. While new to many planners, scenario planning can help them assist their organizations as a whole - in addition to looking at their meetings in a new way. As Laura Jelinek, associate executive director, American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons said, "We are in business to provide benefits to our membership."

Those at the Executive Edge program felt the meetings industry is ready for this strategy. Brad Kent, vice president, sales, AVW-TELAV, a seminar participant noted, "Our industry, in many ways, became a victim after Sept. 11. Scenario planning gives you a 35,000-foot view before getting consumed with the emotion of the situation. You can plan for the unexpected, rather than be a victim."

"Scenario planning is best used for strategic planning in a world of uncertainty," explained Roch Parayre, Ph.D., senior fellow at the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School, and managing director and scenario planning expert with Decision Strategies Inc. (DSI), who led the scenario planning sessions. "The world for most industries is becoming increasingly unpredictable today. Many are beginning to 'twist in the wind.' This is certainly true of the travel and hospitality industry, especially after Sept. 11," he emphasized.

The Right Conditions

Indeed, the meetings industry seems to possess many conditions under which scenario planning should be used, as outlined by Dr. Parayre:

• uncertainty is high, relative to one's ability to adjust
• too many costly surprises have occurred in the past ‰ insufficient new opportunities are perceived
• the quality of thinking is deemed to be low ‰ the industry is experiencing significant change
• a common language is desired, without stifling diversity
• major differences of opinion exist, each having merit
• your competitors use scenario planning.

"That describes who we are as an industry," confirmed Valerie Sumner, principal, VRS Meetings and Events Inc., another seminar participant.

Indeed, everyone in this industry can identify costly surprises and examples of significant change in their own everyday work environment. Major differences, each with their own merit, have cropped up in recent labor negotiations. In addition, the industry is looking for a common language through the Accepted Practices Exchange (APEX) initiative of the Convention Industry Council. By year's end, the APEX Technology Advisory Council (TAC) is scheduled to complete data mapping, so that systems in hotels, convention centers, and associations have common data fields; and reports and meeting documentation will have common formats.

Building a Matrix

When implementing scenario planning, planners and executives alike should consider the forces that are shaping the future of their organization or industry, and then build a scenario matrix relative to these forces. "There could be hundreds of forces facing an organization or industry," Dr. Parayre said. "Scenario planning is a systematic way of taking those forces into account when you plan." Forces that affect meeting planning, for example, could include:

• technology, e.g., the Internet, blogs, RFID, and e-commerce
• sociological changes, such as "Boomers" redefining aging and retirement
• globalization of the economy ‰ economic upswings or downturns
• terrorism on U.S. soil and globally
• workforce issues, including aging and immigration
• skyrocketing health care insurance costs.

Next, scenario planners need to consider the degree of uncertainty to which these forces will affect their work, such as "high risk/low risk," and "high benefit/low benefit."

Dr. Parayre offered this example for meeting professionals:

The two axes should represent two dimensions that could affect the meetings industry most, depending on the scenario. For example, you might have as one dimension "virtual meetings," which could affect face-to-face meetings in the future. The other axis could be "no technological breakthrough/major technological breakthrough."

A scenario planning matrix has four sections. "There is no perfect number, but a group of four usually captures the major possibilities. If you have more than four, then the additional scenarios start 'smelling alike' and duplication sets in," Dr. Parayre advised. "You can't capture every possible feature, but this matrix addresses the most important scenarios to consider," he added. (See the table on page 56, which uses an insurance company matrix as an example.)

"The strategy in scenario planning is to identify the robust and resilient factors that will be present across different scenarios. Then you identify the small ones that would work in one scenario, but not the other," Dr. Parayre continued.

Identifying core competencies within your organization is a case in point. You should build into scenarios those processes that you do well, and those where you might focus on improving - or those for which you need to create alliances in order to be more responsive or do a better job. "This could be in multiple little steps," Dr. Parayre noted. "You want to be prepared to create these alliances when needed." For example, in one scenario, you might decide that another organization, or supplier, might have better data on potential customers. (See Evaluating Core Competencies on page 58.)

You also need to know key success factors - the resources and capabilities that set organizations apart in their overall performance in a given environment. Key success factors might include:

• brand recognition
• quality of your database for reaching customers
• responsiveness to your customers
• large market share
• strategic alliances.

Lest you think that key success factors do not apply to meeting planners, consider this: Do your members consider your association and its meetings the "go-to place" for education? Are you reaching all the right customers? Are you partnering with other organizations to build attendance by organizing "in-conjunction-with" meetings?

Lisa Block, director, meetings and conferences, Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), said that her association has worked with Dr. Parayre and DSI on scenario planning to anticipate future directions. Among the success factors identified for SHRM were branding, products, and services. When senior SHRM managers met in April, Block already had a good background with scenario planning from the Executive Edge sessions. "It gave validity to the processes for me," she said.

To proceed successfully with scenario planning, participants need to remain flexible and think creatively. "Flexibility is the key," said Dr. Parayre. "Scenario planning allows that. If Scenario A plays out, for example, you are ready to respond. You can re-invent yourself on a dime," he added.

Jelinek said that was one of the key "takeaways" for her. "Those that succeed adapt the best. We have to change with the times," she said. Kati Quigley, group manager, events, Microsoft Corporation, added, "The session emphasized that you need to be ready to shift, and be agile."

The seminar provided another valuable lesson for Kent. "You also are forced to look at negatives and to learn that is OK. When you go through various scenarios, you find you can plan more successfully if you identify what can go wrong before you are in the 'heat of the moment.' You can find opportunities that you may have missed in a negative situation." Dr. Parayre reinforced what Kent learned: "This methodology helps you to embrace - and actually benefit from - uncertainty. In all situations, there is opportunity to be realized. A 'winner' in one scenario may be a 'loser' in another. But with a scenario planning process, at least you are prepared," he said.

After introducing scenario planning and giving participants the opportunity to actually participate in the process, Dr. Parayre provided a six-step process for formulating strategies in uncertain conditions. Planners can easily use these steps to strategize for their meetings, as well as the direction of their department and association.

1. Consider general scenarios. As an example, Dr. Parayre said if a group is planning a meeting in a certain destination, think about what political or other scenarios might play out there.
2. Examine the organization's market. "One size does not fit all," he said. "There are individual strategic market segments. Conduct market research and detailed needs assessments to understand each group," he advised.
3. Assess the organization's internal core capabilities. "It's better to stick to what you do well, and look to a partner or third party to do the rest," he gave as an example. Too many planners try to do it all, so this is sound advice.
4. Put the pieces together. Looking at your information in the first three steps, analyze how different outcomes will be influenced by different scenarios.
5. Identify tactical initiatives to support strategic directives. "For example, if you want to enhance certain capabilities, such as data mining, how will you make that happen? Through partnering?" asked Dr. Parayre.
6. Implement. Be sure to measure the initiation of strategies against pre-set developmental milestones, budgets, and time frames.

For many Executive Edge attendees, the session served as a first introduction to the concept. "I am not personally aware of any convention and visitors bureaus that are using [scenario planning] right now. But it is a strategy that forces you to think about things differently - different perspectives and possibilities," said Kitty Ratcliffe, newly appointed president and CEO of the St. Louis Convention and Visitors Commission.

For others who were more familiar with scenario planning, the session provided ideas for employing it in different areas. "We have used it in our strategic and fiscal planning for core competencies of the association. We used this tool to look at the demographics of members now, how that might change in the future, and what benefits we need to provide," said Jelinek. "But we haven't used it as a formalized process in our meetings department as of now," she added.

Quigley has used similar strategies for her events, although not specifically scenario planning. "We are tasked in our departments to be prepared for change," she said. "However, the concepts presented were a good reminder that you need to look at the broad landscape, and how forces such as financial conditions can affect your planning in the future," she added.

Although Sumner had been introduced to the concept, she noted that this seminar "gave a broader perspective. Previously, I had learned about it on the micro scale. But this gave a more global perspective, and Parayre provided concrete ways to use the process. He also helped us to break down scenarios from the bigger picture to the smaller components, so that you don't become myopic," she said.

Jack Ferguson, executive vice president of the Philadelphia Convention and Visitors Bureau, who served on the Annual Meeting Planning Committee, noted, "This was a great session. It gave PCMA members a wonderful slice of life they hadn't experienced before. I knew many of the meeting planners in the room, and knew they had not used the process before. But they are out-of-the-box thinkers, and I know they will use it."

Editor's Note: Look for a follow-up article on how associations have put scenario planning to good use in a future issue.

Contributing Editor Sara Torrence, CMP, is the president of Sara Torrence & Associates, a meeting and events planning consulting firm in Gaithersburg, Md. She is the author of How to Run Scientific and Technical Meetings and sits on the board of the Montgomery County Conference and Visitors Bureau.

How it Worked at PCMA

In Philadelphia, PCMA members went to business school. Senior-level individuals participating in the Executive Edge sessions at the 2006 Annual Meeting learned business concepts from professors at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. "We wanted to incorporate into our education 'cross pollination' of different disciplines outside the meetings industry, thereby providing our members with a framework to use these concepts in their own organization's high-level strategic planning processes," said Glen Ramsborg, Ph.D., senior director of education for PCMA. "This gave meeting professionals the opportunity to attend sessions at one of the nation's most prestigious graduate business schools."

"When you market a destination, you should consider all of the resources available. That includes institutions of higher education. In Philadelphia, that includes the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania," said Jack Ferguson, executive vice president of the Philadelphia Convention and Visitors Bureau. "When discussing Executive Edge, we decided to raise the bar and include Wharton. After all, they design programs for Fortune 500 companies, aligned with the customers' needs. Why not for PCMA?" Ferguson asked.

During Executive Edge sessions, participants divided into groups and discussed such industry-related forces as:

the financial shift in the workforce that has caused companies to go offshore for many services

the future of Internet-learning modules versus face-to- face meetings

the future of association annual meetings, and whether the "big tent" works anymore

the dwindling workforce and how it is affected by immigration laws. P

articipants were largely enthusiastic about their business school education. Comments from the evaluations tell the story:

"Excellent and very relevant." "Very, very focused and applicable to our businesses." "Great examples that really explained concepts." "I learned a much more conclusive way to prepare for scenarios."

Will participants take the concept of scenario planning back to their workplace and use it? The real question might be how soon they will put it to work. As one participant noted: "There is a very strong potential to apply this to my organization now."