"Bird flu" is the common nickname for avian influenza, also referred to as avian flu or H5N1, the scientific term. Regardless of the name, it refers to a virus that has the scientific community preparing like never before. Local, state, federal, and even global plans are being made, usually behind the scenes. The general public may be unaware of all that is being done, but federal appropriations for pandemic preparation in the United States have already exceeded $6 billion, and more will follow.

So what's the big deal?
Avian flu represents a new virus never seen before its discovery in 1997. It has now spread among birds and other animals to 53 countries on three continents. It first made the leap to humans in 2003, and as of November 2006, there have been 258 human cases in Asia and Africa, resulting in 153 deaths. That translates into a fatality rate of 59 percent. And these human cases have occurred in 10 countries, so things are moving.

The only saving grace so far is that only people who work or live in very close contact with poultry and other infected animals have themselves become infected. In other words, the virus has not spread from person to person … yet. But that is expected to change in the future. Then we will be facing a pandemic.

The three criteria for a pandemic are:
1) a new virus to which the global population is susceptible
2) high fatality among infected humans
3) high transmissibility among humans.

Avian flu has already met the first two criteria. To meet the third, the virus either has to undergo spontaneous mutation (a slow and random process), or it needs to undergo genetic "reassortment." This could occur when the avian flu virus infects a person who is also infected at the same time (co-infected) with our usual seasonal human flu virus. In that case, the two flu viruses could exchange genetic information and create a new offspring virus. If the "baby" virus has the lethality of the avian flu parent, and the transmissibility of the human flu parent, then pandemic influenza is born … and the entire world will feel the effects.

Think that is unlikely? Not really. Pandemics are a fact of life on this planet. They tend to occur every 30-50 years, far enough apart for people to tend to forget about them. We have seen 10 in the last 300 years and three over the last century: 1918 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, and 1968 Hong Kong flu. It is naïve to think this won't happen again; in fact, we are almost past due.

In January 2006, the World Economic Forum stated, "Avian flu is the single greatest threat to global security." That is because many of the features of the current avian flu virus resemble the 1918 Spanish flu - which killed up to 650,000 Americans and 40 million globally. It infected about 25 percent of the population and had a fatality rate of 5 percent (not the 59 percent seen so far with avian flu, a number that will likely come down significantly over time). Using these same numbers from 1918 to project the impact of an avian flu pandemic today, up to 2 million Americans and up to 75 million people globally would die.

The problem is that preparation for such a pandemic may be woefully inadequate. We cannot be sure that there will be an effective vaccine until the "baby" pandemic flu virus is born, despite already having vaccines that are active against both parent viruses, the avian and human influenzas. Anti-viral drug therapy (antibiotics) may well be effective, as we have two drugs active against both parent viruses. But there are not enough drug doses available, and despite maximal production efforts, it won't be until 2008 before we have enough for all infected Americans, not to mention enough to meet the global demand.

The final intervention strategy is "social distancing," and this is where the meetings industry will be hit.
In the face of a pandemic, without an effective vaccine and with insufficient drug therapy, the only remaining option is to encourage people not to congregate together. The recommendation will be to avoid contact with others if at all possible, thus interrupting the spread of this deadly disease. Though not mandatory, a federally urged program of social distancing is expected to lead to schools being closed, to sporting and entertainment events being cancelled, and to mass transit declining sharply. Airlines will essentially be grounded, hotels will be empty, restaurants and theme parks will be deserted … and meetings will be cancelled.

Essentially every industry will feel the impact of increased absenteeism, shifts in supply and demand, or both.

The global economy will be hit hard by 25 percent - 40 percent absenteeism. This will partially be due to workers being out sick (or worse, dead), but also because of employees afraid to go to work for fear of becoming infected. Still others will need to stay home to care for their sick family members or to take care of their children who cannot go to school, because all the schools are closed.

Social distancing will create dramatic shifts in the demand for products and services. Some areas will come to a screeching halt, like the cruise industry. Others will simply become unnecessary, such as discretionary items for vacations. The retail industry will face empty shopping malls. And purchases that can be deferred will be postponed until a safer time, such as trading up to a new car.

As a result, companies will face both financial and personnel challenges that will disrupt the business economy. Revenues will drop, expenditures for training and entertaining will be slashed, and meetings will be cancelled.

Will all industries be hit equally?
Absolutely not, although most will face some challenges. If success requires that producers or consumers group together for any type of function, this will not happen in a pandemic. If business ultimately depends upon sales being done face to face, many of these sales will not take place. If production relies upon the delivery of materials and components, this will be compromised.

On the other hand, some industries such as healthcare, law enforcement, and information technology will be affected mainly by absenteeism rather than by diminished demand. Agriculture will continue at whatever level the available workforce and product transportation will allow. There will be continued need for media of all types to help us feel in touch and connected, at least electronically.

In this radically altered climate, the association industry must ask what value it provides for its members, and whether that value can still be delivered remotely. If the primary benefit of an association depends upon face-to-face networking and group learning, can the association survive without meetings for a year or more? Every association should consider whether members would renew if there were no meetings held for their benefit. Without renewed membership and meeting registration fees, would the association be able to function?

The reality for the meetings industry is the same whether you are dealing in corporate, association, government, or other markets. In a worst-case scenario, social distancing will force the meetings industry to go dormant for a period of one to two years, and then it will slowly recover.

What can the meetings industry do to prepare?
That depends upon your individual function. For example, venue and lodging providers should prepare a phantom budget reflecting loss of events and guests. Perhaps contracting with local and state governments to use these empty facilities as alternative quarantine or healthcare facilities should be considered. The food and beverage industry might consider developing or expanding delivery options. Meeting planners might work toward more remote learning experiences as a contingency plan, partnering with Web-based production companies.

But regardless of what you currently do and how you do it, you should develop a Business Continuity Plan for this kind of disaster.

This planning will be helpful in the event of other forms of disaster as well, such as terrorist attacks, hurricanes, floods, strikes, and recession. The process is definitely not a waste of time. In fact, the very process of developing a Business Continuity Plan may reveal areas of improved operations and new revenue streams that are of benefit even without a disaster.

Will this ever happen, and if so, when?
The short answer is that no one knows. All the pieces are in place biologically. History tells us that it is likely. But the viral reassortment leading to the birth of pandemic influenza might not occur for another year, or three years … or never. If this evolutionary step is delayed until there is an adequate supply of anti-viral medication, then perhaps the meetings industry will continue with minimal disruption, while the pharmaceutical industry hits a home run.

However, worrying about when or whether this will happen is a useless exercise. It is far more important to ask what can be done to prepare. Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said, "We hope this doesn't happen. But hope is not a strategy." We all have insurance of various kinds - health insurance, disability insurance, auto insurance - to help us in case bad things should happen. We hope we never need to use them, but we feel better knowing we are prepared in case we do. The same is true of a Business Continuity Plan. We hope we never need to use it, but we will be far better off having one in place.

The good news: Forewarned is forearmed.
Many may wonder if this is just another Y2K scare. Definitely not. The Y2K issue was unprecedented. Never before had there been a turn of the century, let alone a turn of the millennium, during the computer era. So this was all theoretical. But pandemics have an historical track record, and all the biological pieces are currently falling into place. From my perspective, there needs to be significant dialogue taking place within every segment of the meetings industry, and that dialogue should begin now. What is the downside of such preparation? Obviously this will take time and financial support. There will be conference calls, debates, and meetings. Models may change. Paradigms may shift. New options may be discovered. The meetings industry may even undergo some degree of reorganization. But just starting the process will put you ahead of the curve.

° Dr. Robert L. Cox is double-board certified in Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases. As founder of BioForecasts, he speaks to association and corporate audiences, providing insights into the biological future. His focus is upon how the biological developments on the horizon will impact lives, careers and families. He can be reached at (800) 387-8129 or visit www.BioForecasts.com. Dr. Cox spoke on this topic at the National Speakers Association annual meeting in July.

© Robert L. Cox, M.D., and BioForecasts retain ownership and rights to this article. This article cannot be reprinted or published without the written consent of the author.